Kriegler, Elmar; et al. (2018): Pathways limiting warming to 1.5°C. A tale of turning around in no time?

Kriegler, Elmar; Luderer, Gunnar; Bauer, Nico; Baumstark, Lavinia; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Popp, Alexander et al. (2018): Pathways limiting warming to 1.5°C. A tale of turning around in no time? In Philos Trans A Math Phys Eng Sci 376 (2119). DOI: 10.1098/rsta.2016.0457.

„We explore the feasibility of limiting global warming to 1.5°C without overshoot and without the deployment of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies. For this purpose, we perform a sensitivity analysis of four generic emissions reduction measures to identify a lower bound on future CO₂ emissions from fossil fuel combustion and industrial processes. Final energy demand reductions and electrification of energy end uses as well as decarbonization of electricity and non-electric energy supply are all considered. We find the lower bound of cumulative fossil fuel and industry CO₂ emissions to be 570 GtCO₂ for the period 2016–2100, around 250 GtCO₂ lower than the lower end of available 1.5°C mitigation pathways generated with integrated assessment models.“

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