Nature – Merfort et al. (2023): Bioenergy-induced land-use-change emissions with sectorally fragmented policies

Leon Merfort, Nico Bauer, Florian Humpenöder, David Klein, Jessica Strefler, Alexander Popp, Gunnar Luderer, Elmar Kriegler IN: Nat. Clim. Chang. (2023). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-023-01697-2

Using the global integrated assessment model REMIND-MAgPIE, the authors derive a biofuel emission factor (EF) for different policy frameworks. They find that a uniform price on emissions from both sectors keeps biofuel emissions at 12 kg CO₂ GJ⁻¹. However, without land-use regulation, the EF increases substantially (64 kg CO₂ GJ⁻¹ over 80 years, 92 kg CO₂ GJ⁻¹ over 30 years). In the absence of comprehensive and timely land-use regulation, bioenergy thus may contribute less to climate change mitigation than assumed previously.

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