The State of Carbon Dioxide Removal: A global independent scientific assessment of Carbon Dioxide Removal, 2nd edition

Stephen M. Smith, Oliver Geden, Matthew J. Gidden, William F. Lamb, Gregory F. Nemet, Jan C. Minx, Holly Buck, Josh Burkev, Emily Cox, Morgan R. Edwards, Sabine Fuss, Injy Johnstone, Finn Müller-Hansen, Julia Pongratz, Benedict S. Probst, Stephanie Roe, Felix Schenuit, Ingrid Schulte, Naomi E. Vaughan, University of Oxford’s Smith School of Enterprise, June 4, 2024

Although the Paris Agreement states that climate change mitigation must be done “in the context of sustainable development”, most scenarios do not explicitly consider social and environmental sustainability. The authors therefore identified a subset of scenarios that can be considered “more sustainable”. Across this group of scenarios, the central range of CDR deployment is 7 to 9 GtCO2 per year in 2050. The lowest scenarios reach 4 GtCO2 per year in 2050. While this range is similar in 2050 to that for all below 2°C scenarios, the more sustainable scenarios cumulatively remove 170 GtCO2 between 2020 and the time of net zero CO2, compared with 260 GtCO2 cumulatively in all below 2°C scenarios.