Sloterdijk et al. (2025): Future scenarios of global fisheries and ocean alkalinity enhancement under socio-economic and climate pathways

Hans Sloterdijk, Caroline Grünhagen, Rudi Voss, Patricia Grasse, David P. Keller, Linda Kleemann, Lotta Clara Kluger, Kira Lancker, Wilfried Rickels, Ulf Riebesell, Renato Salvatteci, Andreas Oschlies, Jörn O. Schmidt, Natascha Oppelt, Katrin Rehdanz and Marie-Catherine Riekhof, IN: Earth’s Future, https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005478

Ocean alkalinity enhancement (OAE) is one strategy, designed to strengthen the ocean’s natural carbon sink, reduce atmospheric CO₂, and mitigate ocean acidification. However, its implications for fisheries, critical for food security and livelihoods, remain uncertain. This study examines the interplay between global fisheries, OAE, and different future socioeconomic and climatic conditions, using the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and Representative Concentration Pathways framework. The authors explore how global fisheries and OAE could evolve under three combined scenarios: SSP1-2.6 (sustainability-focused), SSP3-7.0 (regional rivalry), and SSP5-8.5 (high fossil fuel dependency). By integrating ecological, economic, societal, and technological perspectives, they develop scenario narratives and quantify key bio-economic parameters, including technological progress, fishing costs, fisheries management, marine aquaculture, and ecosystem carrying capacity.

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