Bataille et al. (2025): Defining ‘abated’ fossil fuel and industrial process emissions
Christopher Bataille, Alaa Al Khourdajie, Heleen de Coninck, Kiane de Kleijne, Lars J. Nilsson, Igor Bashmakov, Steven J. Davis, Paul S. Fennell, IN: Energy and Climate Change, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.egycc.2025.100203
There is scientific consensus that limiting warming in line with the Paris Agreement goals requires reaching net zero CO₂ emissions by mid-century and net negative emissions thereafter. Because of the entrenchment of current fossil fuel energy and feedstock demand estimated in almost all global modelled scenarios, “abated” fossil fuel and industrial process and product use (IPPU) CO₂ emissions, using carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies to perform carbon management, are likely to be part of any transition. In addition to fossil fuel combustion, this will be primarily in cement & lime kilns, chemical production, and possibly waste incineration and iron and steel making, in processes producing maximally concentrated CO₂ waste streams. Abated fossil fuel and IPPU CO₂ emissions in the context of recent commitments, however, requires consideration of capture rates for fuel processing and end-use, permanence of storage, reduction of upstream production and end-use fugitive methane, and sufficient means to sequester residual emissions. Based on an assessment of evolving CCS technologies in existing sectors and jurisdictions, criteria are proposed for defining a benchmark for “abated” fossil fuel and IPPU emissions as where near 100 % GHG abatement is to be eventually achieved, with N₂O and fluorinated gases considered separately.