Moioli et al. (2025): Mitigation deterrence and unrealistic expectations: the future costs of forest carbon offsets
Camilla Moioli, Laurent Drouet, Dominik Roeser, Johannes Emmerling, Hisham Zerriffi, IN: Global Environmental Change, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103068
This study examines the economic and societal impacts of using Forest Carbon Offsets (FCO) as a negative emissions technology in climate mitigation strategies. FCO includes afforestation, reforestation, and reduced emissions from deforestation and degradation (REDD) initiatives aimed at achieving global climate targets, such as limiting temperature rise to 2 °C by 2100. Despite their potential, challenges such as the impermanence of carbon storage, overestimation of carbon removal, and mitigation deterrence—where reliance on FCO reduces other climate actions—persist. Using the WITCH integrated assessment model, this study analyzes the effects of FCO on energy sector investments, carbon pricing, and mitigation costs under scenarios with perfect foresight, myopic behavior, and varying degrees of forest carbon loss (FCL).