Bednar et al. (2026): Stabilizing time-lagged climate impacts requires net-negative emissions for centuries
Johannes Bednar, Artem Baklanov, Justin Macinante, Jim W. Hall, Thomas Gasser and Michael Obersteiner, IN: Environmental Research Letters, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ae34ca
In July 2025, the International Court of Justice (ICJ) affirmed that States must prevent significant harm to the environment, including the climate system. Some of the most critical climate impacts, such as sea level rise (SLR) and permafrost thaw (PFT), will intensify for centuries even under 1.5–2 °C stabilization. In the terms expressed by the ICJ, the authors argue a duty exists to pursue stabilization of impacts at the lowest attainable levels. Using ensembles from a coupled integrated assessment and earth system model emulator, they show that achieving this requires sustained global net-negative CO₂ emissions well beyond the 23rd century.