Cabiyo et al. (2026): Consistent temporal accounting supports credible CDR use
Bodie Cabiyo, Freya Chay, Christopher Field, Kevin Fingerman, Zeke Hausfather, Kyle S Hemes and Claire Marie Zarakas, IN: CDR.Xiv, https://doi.org/10.70212/cdrxiv.2026302v1
Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) is increasingly used to support national targets and corporate net-zero commitments, yet the timing of atmospheric drawdown remains poorly represented in carbon accounting frameworks. Many CDR pathways exhibit temporal lags—either because drawdown occurs only after physical or counterfactual processes unfold, or because excess emissions are incurred before CDR begins. Using the FaIR climate model, the authors quantify the warming implications of four archetypal lag structures. Temporal lags consistently increase near-term warming relative to instantaneous removal and delay the point of atmospheric neutralization when used to offset fossil emissions.