Sheng et al. (2026): The forest carbon paradox: novel insights into China’s forest-economy-emissions relationships
Zhelin Sheng, Kaimei Zhang, Chen Ling, Wenjuan Shen, Zihan Zhang, Chuanxin Ma, Changlei Xia, Keyi Chen, Yu Shen, Yu Hao and Jiangang Han, IN: npj Climate Action, https://doi.org/10.1038/s44168-026-00350-w
Forest-climate-economy relationships present critical challenges for climate mitigation in rapidly developing economies. While forests are traditionally viewed as carbon sinks, their effectiveness as tradable carbon products remains difficult to quantify in the near term due to time lags and scale mismatch with energy-driven emissions dynamics. This study examines these relationships in China using data from 30 provinces (from 2000 to 2019). Using LSTM-MLP hybrid models and multispatial Convergent Cross Mapping, the authors reveal what they term the “forest carbon paradox”: despite China’s extensive afforestation efforts increasing forest coverage significantly, these initiatives demonstrate limited immediate impact on CO₂ emissions and GDP trajectories.