Motlaghzadeh & Schweizer (2026): The future of direct air capture in Canada: A systematic scenario-based exploration of barriers and possibilities

Kasra Motlaghzadeh & Vanessa Schweizer, IN: Energy Research & Social Science, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2026.104640

Integrated assessment models often overlook the interdependencies of socio-political factors shaping the deployment direct air capture (DAC), leading to projections that may be overly optimistic. To address this gap, the authors systematically explore the conditions under which DAC may (or not) emerge as a competitive carbon dioxide removal (CDR) option in Canada using the system-theoretical scenario method cross-impact balances (CIB), which accommodates both qualitative and quantitative scenario factors. Based on the literature, they identified 10 key factors affecting DAC deployment such as interjurisdictional regulations, public perception, and clean electricity availability. Their interrelationships were assessed by 27 experts to develop an expert-informed CIB model that identified 15 internally consistent scenarios.

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