Musgrave (2026): How Uncertain Are Estimates of Marine Carbon Dioxide Removal? Insights from a Simplified Model
Ruth Musgrave, IN: Research Square, https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-10006849/v1
Marine carbon dioxide removal (mCDR) approaches such as Ocean Alkalinity Enhancement (OAE) and Direct Ocean Removal (DOR) are necessarily evaluated using ocean models, yet uncertainties in model predictions remain poorly understood. Here, the author uses a one-dimensional ocean model to investigate the controls on uncertainty in atmospheric CO₂ drawdown in an abiotic system. The author shows that, within the first few years after deployment, estimates of carbon removal are highly sensitive to mixed-layer physical and biogeochemical properties, while longer-term uncertainties are dominated by vertical mixing, air–sea gas exchange and the depth of the initial deployment.