Alikhanova et al. (2026): Greening drylands: The potential and limits of afforestation as a nature-based solution in the Aralkum Desert
Shahzoda Alikhanova, Alison Smith, Cristina Tarantino and Joseph William Bull, IN: Land Use Policy, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2026.108204
Dryland afforestation is increasingly deployed as a Nature-based Solution (NbS) for climate mitigation and ecosystem restoration, yet its long-term effectiveness remains uncertain because carbon gains may be offset by biophysical trade-offs and water limitations. Existing assessments rarely integrate carbon sequestration, surface albedo, and climate vulnerability, limiting understanding of how these processes interact to determine restoration outcomes. Here the authors present the first integrated assessment of large-scale afforestation in the South Aral Sea – a region whose near-complete desiccation may have shifted the area from a carbon sink toward a source of emissions. The authors evaluate the current carbon pool, surface albedo effects, and climate vulnerability to assess both the potential and inherent limits of dryland afforestation as an NbS.