Liu et al. (2025): Overshoot, potential air pollution co-benefits and food shortages
Li-Jing Liu, Qiao-Mei Liang, Felix Creutzig, Hua Tong, Yu-Xuan Xiao, Xiang-Yan Qian, Hao Wang, Si-Yi Wei, Xiao-Chen Yuan, Biying Yu, Lan-Cui Liu, Yi-Ming Wei, IN: Global Environmental Change, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103040
Achieving the 1.5 °C target will entail a temporary overshoot, with peak temperatures potentially exceeding 1.7 °C before declining towards the end of the century. This study examines how different economic growth patterns, energy transitions, and non-CO₂ mitigation strategies influence this trajectory. The authors’ simulations reveal that achieving this target requires confining cumulative CO₂ emissions to 220–370 GtCO₂ by 2100, with a peak around 2060 of 530–650 GtCO₂.