Miller et al. (2026): Lagrangian Flux Decomposition (LFD): Fast Probabilistic Marine Carbon Dioxide Removal Modeling via Stochastic Lagrangian Transport and Carbonate System Accounting
Jordan Hood Miller, Trond Kristiansen, and Momme Butenschön, IN: ESS Open Archive, https://doi.org/10.22541/essoar.15002617/v1
Marine carbon dioxide removal (mCDR) requires ocean modeling to quantify efficacy, environmental risk, and uncertainty across scales. Estimating air–sea carbon fluxes and associated impacts is crucial for project planning and for Measurement, Reporting, and Verification under emerging standards. Existing approaches, primarily Eulerian dynamic models, face scalability limits due to tradeoffs between resolution and domain size, restricting their ability to assess multiple sites, configurations, and future ocean scenarios. The authors introduce the Lagrangian Flux Decomposition framework, which quantifies the difference in air–sea carbon dioxide flux between an mCDR intervention and a counterfactual and attributes that difference to tracer particle contributions over time.