Douglas et al. (2025): Drivers of Regional Variation in the De-Emergence of Climate Change under Negative Emissions
Hunter C. Douglas, Laura E. Revell, Manoj Joshi, Andrew King, Luke J. Harrington, David J. Frame IN: Journal of Climate, 38, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-24-0257.1
A central question of climate change impact assessments is identifying when the signal of change emerges from the noise of natural variability, though to date, this framework has been almost exclusively applied under warming conditions. In this work, the authors investigate the phenomenon of de-emergence, where temperatures rise beyond a given threshold and subsequently drop back below that threshold as forcing reverses. Large-scale carbon dioxide removal (CDR), also referred to as negative emissions, has been proposed to lower global average temperatures and to mitigate damage to the Earth system, though the regional effects of this have been understudied to date. Here, the authors analyze the results of eight Earth system models (ESMs) that participated in the CDR Model Intercomparison Project (CDRMIP).