Brad & Schneider (2025): Carbon removal, mitigation deterrence and the politics of target separation. Evidence from the EU 2040 climate target negotiation
Alina Brad and Etienne Schneider IN: Environmental Research Letters, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/add0c9
The ongoing integration of novel carbon dioxide removal (CDR) methods into climate policy has raised concerns that expectations of CDR may delay or undermine emission reduction efforts – a risk discussed as mitigation deterrence. Separating targets for emission reduction and CDR has emerged as a key policy proposal to address this risk, limiting the fungibility of emission reduction and CDR and enabling critical assessment of the credibility and ambition of mitigation plans. However, stakeholder preferences and rationales as well as factors shaping political decisions on target separation have not been systematically analyzed to date. Here, the authors investigate the politics around the EU’s 2040 climate target design as a key conflict over how to deal with mitigation deterrence risks in climate policy-making through target separation. Drawing on data from the EU consultation process, document analysis, expert interviews and relevant online events, they find that a majority of stakeholders, including business actors, prefer separate targets over a net target, albeit based on different rationales. They also provide evidence on the political factors that led the European Commission to opt against target separation in its 2040 climate target communication.