Nature – Moustakis et al. (2024): Temperature overshoot responses to ambitious forestation in an Earth System Model
Yiannis Moustakis, Tobias Nützel, Hao-Wei Wey, Wenkai Bao, Julia Pongratz IN: Nature Communications, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-52508-x
Here, the authors develop an ambitious Afforestation/Reforestation scenario by harnessing 1259 Integrated Assessment Model scenarios, restoration potential maps, and biodiversity constraints, reaching 595 Mha by 2060 and 935 Mha by 2100. They then force the Max Planck Institute’s Earth System Model with this scenario which yields a reduction of peak temperature by 0.08°C, end-of-century temperature by 0.2°C, and overshoot duration by 13 years. Afforestation/ Reforestation in the range of country pledges globally could thus constitute a useful mitigation tool in overshoot scenarios in addition to fossil fuel emission reductions, but socio-ecological implications need to be scrutinized to avoid severe side effects.