Schlagwort: climate modelling

Peer-reviewed Publications

Plazzotta, Maxime; et al. (2019): Impact of Solar Radiation Modification on Allowable CO 2 Emissions: What Can We Learn From Multimodel Simulations?

Plazzotta, Maxime; Séférian, Roland; Douville, Hervé (2019): Impact of Solar Radiation Modification on Allowable CO 2 Emissions: What Can We Learn From Multimodel Simulations? In Earth’s Future 7 (6), pp. 664–676. DOI: 10.1029/2019EF001165.

„Here we use the results of six Earth system models simulating a continuous stratospheric injection of 5 Tg of sulfur dioxide per year between 2020 and 2069 under the representative concentration pathways 4.5 to investigate the impact of SRM on land and ocean carbon uptake.“

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Peer-reviewed Publications

Gettelman, A.; et al. (2021): Climate Impacts of COVID‐19 Induced Emission Changes

Gettelman, A.; Lamboll, R.; Bardeen, C. G.; Forster, P. M.; Watson‐Parris, D. (2021): Climate Impacts of COVID‐19 Induced Emission Changes. In Geophysical Research Letters 48 (3), e2020GL091805. DOI: 10.1029/2020GL091805.

„We use estimates of emission changes for 2020 in two Earth System Models (ESMs) to simulate the impacts of the COVID‐19 economic changes.“

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Peer-reviewed Publications

Drake, Henri F.; et al. (2020): A Multi-control Climate Policy Process for a Designated Decision Maker

Drake, Henri F.; Rivest, Ronald L.; Edelman, Alan; Deutch, John (2020): A Multi-control Climate Policy Process for a Designated Decision Maker. Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Cambridge, MA (MIT CEEPR Working Paper Series).

„We present an idealized model of optimally-controlled climate change, which is complementary to simpler analytical models and more comprehensive Integrated Assessment Models. We show that the four methods of controlling climate damage– mitigation, carbon dioxide removal, adaptation, and solar radiation modification– are not interchangeable, as they enter at different stages of the causal chain that connects GHG emissions to climate damages.“

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Peer-reviewed Publications

Randers, Jorgen; Goluke, Ulrich (2020): An earth system model shows self-sustained melting of permafrost even if all man-made GHG emissions stop in 2020

Randers, Jorgen; Goluke, Ulrich (2020): An earth system model shows self-sustained melting of permafrost even if all man-made GHG emissions stop in 2020. In Sci Rep 10 (1), pp. 1–9. DOI: 10.1038/s41598-020-75481-z.

„In this paper we report that in the ESCIMO climate model the world is[nbsp]already[nbsp]past a point-of-no-return for global warming. In ESCIMO we observe self-sustained melting of the permafrost for hundreds of years, even if global society stops all emissions of man-made GHGs immediately. We encourage other model builders to explore our discovery in their (bigger) models, and report on their findings.“

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Peer-reviewed Publications

Manley, Kyle; et al. (2020): Modeling the Dynamic Landscape Evolution of a Volcanic Coastal Environment Under Future Climate Trajectories

Manley, Kyle; Salles, T.; Müller, R. D. (2020): Modeling the Dynamic Landscape Evolution of a Volcanic Coastal Environment Under Future Climate Trajectories. In Front. Earth Sci. 8, p. 437. DOI: 10.3389/feart.2020.550312.

„Olivine weathering is a natural process that sequesters carbon out of the atmosphere, but is now being proposed as a strategy that can be artificially implemented to assist in the mitigation of anthropogenic carbon emissions. We use the landscape evolution model Badlands to identify a region (Tweed Caldera catchment in Eastern Australia) that has the potential for naturally enhanced supply of mafic sediments, known to be a carbon sink, into coastal environments.“

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Peer-reviewed Publications

Pye, S.; et al. (2020): Modelling net-zero emissions energy systems requires a change in approach

Pye, S.; Broad, O.; Bataille, C.; Brockway, P.; Daly, H. E.; Freeman, R. et al. (2020): Modelling net-zero emissions energy systems requires a change in approach. In Climate Policy, pp. 1–10. DOI: 10.1080/14693062.2020.1824891.

„Energy modelling can assist national decision makers in determining strategies that achieve net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. However, three key challenges for the modelling community are emerging under this radical climate target that needs to be recognized and addressed.“

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Calls

Call for Submissions: Special Issue „Resolving uncertainties in solar geoengineering through multi-model and large-ensemble simulations“ (ACP/ESD inter-journal SI)

Deadline: 31. July 2022

„To capture the interrelated research amongst these projects, the special issue is set up jointly between[nbsp]Atmospheric Chemistry and Physicsand[nbsp]Earth System Dynamics. In[nbsp]ACP, we invite papers that emphasize process-level understanding and stratospheric dynamics; in[nbsp]ESD, submissions on Earth system effects, feedbacks, and impacts (like agriculture or ecosystem responses) are invited.“

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Peer-reviewed Publications

Kravitz, Ben; et al. (2020): Comparing different generations of idealized solar geoengineering simulations in the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP)

Kravitz, Ben; MacMartin, Douglas G.; Visioni, Daniele; Boucher, Olivier; Cole, Jason N. S.; Haywood, Jim et al. (2020): Comparing different generations of idealized solar geoengineering simulations in the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP). In Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (under review). DOI: 10.5194/acp-2020-732.

„Two generations of models in the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) have now simulated offsetting a quadrupling of the CO2[nbsp]concentration with solar reduction. This simulation is artificial and designed to elicit large responses in the models. Here we show that energetics, temperature, and hydrological cycle changes in this experiment are statistically indistinguishable between the two ensembles.“

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Peer-reviewed Publications

Yang, Cheng-En; et al. (2020): Assessing terrestrial biogeochemical feedbacks in a strategically geoengineered climate

Yang, Cheng-En; Hoffman, Forrest M.; Ricciuto, Daniel M.; Tilmes, Simone; Xia, Lili; MacMartin, Douglas G. et al. (2020): Assessing terrestrial biogeochemical feedbacks in a strategically geoengineered climate. In Environ. Res. Lett. DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abacf7.

„This study comprehensively characterizes responses and feedbacks of terrestrial ecosystems, from an ensemble of coupled high-resolution Earth system model climate change simulations, under the highest standard greenhouse gas scenario with an extreme geoengineering mitigation strategy.“

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