Schlagwort: uncertainties

Call for Participation: Research on NETs survey

Deadline: 01. November 2020

„I am interested in your[nbsp]opinions on the role of negative emissions in climate policy, connected uncertainties, and possible implementation options.[nbsp]I seek views from a variety of people working on or engaging in policy discussions on negative emission technologies.“

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Florin, Marie-Valentine; et al. (2020): lnternational governance issues on climate engineering Information for policymakers

Florin, Marie-Valentine; Rouse, Paul; Hubert, Anna-Maria; Honegger, Matthias; Reynolds, Jesse (2020): lnternational governance issues on climate engineering Information for policymakers. EPFL International Risk Governance Center (IRGC). Lausanne.

„Driven by questions and needs from the international policymaking community to better understand the potential benefits as well as opportunities, risks, uncertainties and other challenges of CDR and SRM, at both technical and governance levels, this report reviews and compares technologies and their potential contributions, costs, risks, uncertainties, before surveying the current legal and institutional landscape of governance regarding climate engineering.“

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Phys.org: Reflecting sunlight to cool the planet will cause other global changes

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‚“About half the world’s population lives in the extratropical regions where storm tracks dominate weather,“ says Charles Gertler, a graduate student in MIT’s Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences (EAPS). „Our results show that solar geoengineering will not simply reverse climate change. Instead, it has the potential itself to induce novel changes in climate.“‚

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Abatayo, Anna Lou; et al. (2020): Solar geoengineering may lead to excessive cooling and high strategic uncertainty

Abatayo, Anna Lou; Bosetti, Valentina; Casari, Marco; Ghidoni, Riccardo; Tavoni, Massimo (2020): Solar geoengineering may lead to excessive cooling and high strategic uncertainty. In PNAS. DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1916637117.

„We study the governance of solar geoengineering using a laboratory experiment in which participants engage in a public good-or-bad game. Results confirm that too much geoengineering can occur, leading to considerable economic losses and increased inequality. The experiment also highlights unforeseen governance risks associated with such technologies.“

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Oschlies, A. (2018): Bewertung von Modellqualität und Unsicherheiten in der Klimamodellierung

Oschlies, A. (2018): Bewertung von Modellqualität und Unsicherheiten in der Klimamodellierung. In: Janich N.; Rhein L. (Hg.): Unsicherheit als Herausforderung für die Wissenschaft: Peter Lang D. DOI: 10.3726/b14379

The chapter discusses sources of uncertainties in climate models and their possible impacts on the model results. The three criteria “adequacy”, “consistency” and “representativeness” are suggested for a comprehensive assessment of the quality of climate models. The fit to data determines the models representativeness. For many climate variables, such as precipitation, cloudiness and the climate sensitivity, this has not significantly improved from the second-to-last to the last assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

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Kravitz, Ben; MacMartin, Douglas G. (2020): Uncertainty and the basis for confidence in solar geoengineering research

Kravitz, Ben; MacMartin, Douglas G. (2020): Uncertainty and the basis for confidence in solar geoengineering research. In Nat Rev Earth Environ 1 (1), pp. 64–75. DOI: 10.1038/s43017-019-0004-7.

„Using a risk-register framework, we illustrate key uncertainties, such as sub-grid-scale mixing or effects of stratospheric heating, investigations of which should be prioritized to transition the field to a mission-driven research agenda.“

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The Economist: Predicting the climatic future is riddled with uncertainty

„The world’s climate scientists are charged with a difficult task: to create a crystal ball with which to skry a future that promises to be hotter than today. But exactly how much hotter depends on innumerable factors, both natural and human. Creating the crystal ball is thus a two-stage process. First, you have to build a simulacrum of how Earth’s climate works. Then, you try to perturb this simulacrum with plausible future human actions, to see what picture appears.“

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