Tag: afforestation

Peer-reviewed Publications

Julia Pongratz et al. (2024): The state of carbon dioxide removal through afforestation and reforestation

Julia Pongratz, Clemens Schwingshackl, Thomas Gasser, Andrea Castanho, Giacomo Grassi IN: Proceedings of the 11th International Carbon Dioxide Conference

Here the authors present new estimates of CDR by A/R based on multiple bookkeeping models (those also used in GCP’s 2023 global carbon budget). They compare these with estimates of A/R and forest management based on the NGHGIs after correcting for natural fluxes. CDR through A/R amounts to 1,860 MtCO2 (1,160-2,230 MtCO2; full range across models) per year globally, averaged over 2013-2022. CDR in managed forests based on NGHGIs is 2000 MtCO2 per year over the same period.

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Peer-reviewed Publications

Egerer et al. (2024): How to measure the efficiency of bioenergy crops compared to forestation

Sabine Egerer, Stefanie Falk, Dorothea Mayer, Tobias Nützel, Wolfgang A. Obermeier, Julia Pongratz IN: Biogeosciences, 21, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-5005-2024

In this study, the authors introduce different measures of efficiency to evaluate the carbon removal potential of afforestation and reforestation (AR) and bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) under the low-emission scenario SSP1-2.6 and in the same area. They define efficiency as the potential to sequester carbon in the biosphere in a specific area or store carbon in geological reservoirs or woody products within a certain time. In addition to carbon capture and storage (CCS), they consider the effects of fossil fuel substitution (FFS) through the usage of bioenergy for energy production, which increases the efficiency through avoided CO2 emissions. These efficiency measures reflect perspectives regarding climate mitigation, carbon sequestration, land availability, spatiotemporal dynamics, and the technological progress in FFS and CCS. They use the land component JSBACH3.2 of the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) to calculate the carbon sequestration potential in the biosphere using an updated representation of second-generation bioenergy plants such as Miscanthus.

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Peer-reviewed Publications

Egerer et al. (2024): How to measure the efficiency of bioenergy crops compared to forestation

Sabine Egerer, Stefanie Falk, Dorothea Mayer, Tobias Nützel, Wolfgang A. Obermeier, Julia Pongratz IN: Biogeosciences, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-5005-2024

In our study, the authors introduce different measures of efficiency to evaluate the carbon removal potential of afforestation and reforestation (AR) and bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) under the low-emission scenario SSP1-2.6 and in the same area. They define efficiency as the potential to sequester carbon in the biosphere in a specific area or store carbon in geological reservoirs or woody products within a certain time. In addition to carbon capture and storage (CCS), we consider the effects of fossil fuel substitution (FFS) through the usage of bioenergy for energy production, which increases the efficiency through avoided CO2 emissions.

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Peer-reviewed Publications

Nature – Kristensen et al. (2024): Tree planting is no climate solution at northern high latitudes

Jeppe Å. Kristensen, Laura Barbero-Palacios, Isabel C. Barrio, Ida B. D. Jacobsen, Jeffrey T. Kerby, Efrén López-Blanco, Yadvinder Malhi, Mathilde Le Moullec, Carsten W. Mueller, Eric Post, Katrine Raundrup, Marc Macias-Fauria IN: Nature Geoscience, 17, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-024-01573-4

Planting trees has become a popular solution for climate change mitigation, owing to the ability of trees to accumulate carbon in biomass and thereby reduce anthropogenic atmospheric CO2 enrichment. As conditions for tree growth expand with global warming, tree-planting projects have been introduced in regions of the highest northern latitudes. However, several lines of evidence suggest that high-latitude tree planting is counterproductive to climate change mitigation.

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Peer-reviewed Publications

Nature – Li al. (2024): Increased precipitation has not enhanced the carbon sequestration of afforestation in Northwest China

Xintao Li, Ke Xia, Taixia Wu, Shudong Wang, Hongzhao Tang, Chenchao Xiao, Hongwu Tang, Nan Xu, Dongzhen Jia IN: Communications Earth & Environment, 5, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-024-01733-9

Concerns have been raised about the sustainability of large-scale afforestation in semi-arid regions due to potential water constraints. Using multi-source remote sensing data, this study investigated whether increased humidity in the semi-arid regions of northwest China could sustain the continued expansion of afforestation efforts

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Peer-reviewed Publications

Wu et al. (2024): Prospects for the potential carbon sink effects of afforestation to enhance weathering in China

Weihua Wu, Werner Nel, Junfeng Ji, Jun Chen IN: Journal of Asian Earth Sciences, 276, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jseaes.2024.106370

Previously, afforestation as a carbon sink was primarily evaluated in terms of the biomass carbon pool and soil organic carbon pool. Plants play a significant role in enhancing the chemical weathering of rocks and minerals, which can lead to more CO2 consumption. However, role of plants in enhancing chemical weathering and contributing to CO2 removal has not been considered when calculating the artificial sink. This paper reviews relevant studies on the carbon sinks from weathering and forest biomass in China and synthesizes the research on how plants affecting weathering in natural ecosystems.

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Peer-reviewed Publications

Nature – Yao et al. (2024): Carbon sequestration potential of tree planting in China

Ling Yao, Tang Liu,Jun Qin, Hou Jiang, Lin Yang, Pete Smith, Xi Chen, Chenghu Zhou, Shilong Piao IN: Nature Communications, 15, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-52785-6

China’s large-scale tree planting programs are critical for achieving its carbon neutrality by 2060, but determining where and how to plant trees for maximum carbon sequestration has not been rigorously assessed. Here, the authors developed a comprehensive machine learning framework that integrates diverse environmental variables to quantify tree growth suitability and its relationship with tree numbers. Then, their correlations with biomass carbon stocks were robustly established. Carbon sink potentials were mapped in distinct tree-planting scenarios.

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Peer-reviewed Publications

Nature – Moustakis et al. (2024): Temperature overshoot responses to ambitious forestation in an Earth System Model

Yiannis Moustakis, Tobias Nützel, Hao-Wei Wey, Wenkai Bao, Julia Pongratz IN: Nature Communications, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-52508-x

Here, the authors develop an ambitious Afforestation/Reforestation scenario by harnessing 1259 Integrated Assessment Model scenarios, restoration potential maps, and biodiversity constraints, reaching 595 Mha by 2060 and 935 Mha by 2100. They then force the Max Planck Institute’s Earth System Model with this scenario which yields a reduction of peak temperature by 0.08°C, end-of-century temperature by 0.2°C, and overshoot duration by 13 years. Afforestation/ Reforestation in the range of country pledges globally could thus constitute a useful mitigation tool in overshoot scenarios in addition to fossil fuel emission reductions, but socio-ecological implications need to be scrutinized to avoid severe side effects.

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Peer-reviewed Publications

Shanin et al. (2024): Predicting the effect of climate change and management on net carbon sequestration in the forest ecosystems of the European part of Russia with the complex of models

Vladimir Shanin, Sergey Chumachenko, Pavel Frolov, Irina Priputina, Daria Tebenkova, Anna Kolycheva IN: Ecological Modelling, 496, 110835, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110835

The authors have integrated several ecological models (dynamic stand model FORRUS-S, soil organic matter model Romul_Hum, statistical climate generator SCLISS and process-based forest ecosystem model EFIMOD3) to simulate the ecosystem dynamics at the regional level in several study areas within the forest zone of the European part of Russia. The simulation results reflected both the direct effects of climate change and forest management actions on ecosystem carbon pools, and the indirect effects through changes in species composition. The simulation experiments were spatially detailed at the level of individual forest management units, thereby revealing the influence of habitat conditions on the rate of carbon sequestration under the influence of environmental factors. 

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Peer-reviewed Publications

Nature – Wollnik et al. (2024): Dynamics of bio-based carbon dioxide removal in Germany

Ronja Wollnik, Malgorzata Borchers, Ruben Seibert, Susanne Abel, Pierre Herrmann, Peter Elsasser, Jakob Hildebrandt, Kathleen Meisel, Pia Hofmann, Kai Radtke, Marco Selig, Stanislav Kazmin, Nora Szarka, Daniela Thrän IN: Scientific Reports, 14, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-71017-x

Bio-based carbon dioxide removal encompasses a range of (1) natural sink enhancement concepts in agriculture and on organic soils including peatlands, and in forestry, (2) bio-based building materials, and (3) bioenergy production with CO2 capture and storage (BECCS). A common database on these concepts is crucial for their consideration in strategies and implementation. In this study, the authors analyse standardised factsheets on these concepts. 

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