Olasehinde et al. (2026): Socio-economic implications of deploying COP28 pledged negative emission technologies
Daniel O. Olasehinde, Olusola Bamisile, Caroline Acen, Chukwuebuka Ejiyi and Qi Huang, IN: Carbon Capture Science & Technology, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ccst.2026.100590
Achieving the Paris Agreement’s targets will inevitably impose financial burdens, but choosing the most economically viable path is critical. At COP28, countries pledged to triple renewable energy capacity to 11,000 GW and double energy efficiency gains to 4 % annually by 2030. The agriculture, forestry, and land use (AFOLU) sector also committed to reducing emissions and enhancing carbon dioxide removal (CDR). Using the En-ROADS modeling tool, this study evaluates five global scenarios combining varying degrees of fossil fuel reduction and CDR deployment: Ref (based on current COP28-aligned pledges), Ref++ (Ref with added fossil fuel taxes and carbon pricing), limCDR (Ref++ plus limited deployment of technological CDR up to 50 % of its potential), modCDR (Ref with moderate CDR deployment up to 65 % of potential, but no fossil fuel taxation), and allCDR (Ref with full utilization of technological CDR potential and no fossil fuel taxation). While population growth is held constant across all scenarios, economic outcomes diverge.